Image source: Alamy Stock Photo
Matchday 3 of the
UEFA Champions League delivered it all - goals, drama, red cards, comebacks and a few results that no one saw coming. A debut Italian side dismantled one of England’s biggest clubs, while the Portuguese champions were beaten at home by a team ranked 146 in the world. The Opta Power Rankings rate every professional club on a global scale. Using these Opta Jabu has worked on The Upset Report, a statistical review of unexpected outcomes from the midweek games.
Como 4-1 Manchester United
United arrived in Italy on a six game winless run, and under increasing pressure. Still, the pre-match odds gave them a decent chance for victory (36%). Como, new to the Champions League, were actually backed for victory by the odds (41%), as if the market knew something.
However, the margin of victory was a shock - if you’d taken Over 4.5 goals pre-game, you would have thought Como 3-2. Instead, we witnessed a 4-1 hammering, echoed by the xG shot map above.
What you may have missed: United are winless away from home this season, had eight first-team players out, so put together a makeshift defense with some half-fit players.
Porto 0-1 PSV Eindhoven
Porto’s Estadio Dragao is one of the most intimidating away games in Europe. Pre-match odds indicated this, giving PSV a minor chance of victory at 5.2/1. Porto had lost just once in 20 home games this year, so this looked like a formality.
That said, a lot of these were domestic games, not Champions League.
PSV’s intent was clear early on, with 10 shots in the first half (compared to 4 for their hosts). A well rested Svej Mijnans was the standout attacking player, providing the assist for the winner and creating four chances, more than any other player on the field.
What you may have missed: PSV three straight away defeats before this were all narrow - late goals, PSV own goals, and some disallowed goals misrepresented their away form.
Sporting CP 2-3 LASK
The biggest upset of the week. Based on Opta Power rankings, LASK are ranked 146th in the world, while Sporting (last season’s UCL quarter-finalists) sit in the Top 20. The international equivalent of this mismatch is Norway playing Liberia. At odds of 6/1, the pre-match odds were not convinced by LASK, implying a 14% chance of victory.
The stats show that the actual game may have gone according to plan. Sporting had the possession (62%-38%), the big chances (5-1) and the xG (3.16 to 1.12), but LASK focused on the most important stat: goals.
What you may have missed: LASK had also scored three against Liverpool in their previous UCL game, and bagged over 2.5 goals in back-to-back matches. They were not a 6/1 outsider.
PSG 4-2 Barcelona
The most anticipated match of the week was just about level in the pre-match odds. PSG (2.4) were slightly favored over Barcelona (2.5) but only just. Ranked 4th and 5th in the world, not much splits them. The xG race chart shows how inseparable the teams were for most of the game.
Given the two teams’ form, no one expected a quiet night here. Barca had won 11 out of 11 before the game, white PSG were the UCL top scorers and the defending champions. Both teams to score was near certainly, with Over 3.5 goals also good value pre-game.
What you may have missed: Barcelona may score freely, but they always concede. They came into this with one clean sheet in 7 games across all competitions.
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